Encouraging Israeli vaccine data

Encouraging Israeli vaccine data

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Estimating the effectiveness of the Pfizer COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccine after a single dose. A reanalysis of a study of ‘real-world’ vaccination outcomes from Israel

Analysis completed 1st February

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.01.21250957v1?fbclid=IwAR1mnoVZiabuYtzRCsJhwDGmiOeT2yKfbHLbF6b2kx7tWPwQiDEMEGViTtI

Norwich Medical School

We extract the primary data from Israel to,

estimate the incidence per day for each day after the first injection

N = 500,000

Retrospective cohort study

Infections over first 24 days = 3,077

Days 0 to 8

Case numbers increased (x 2)

Day 0 to day 14

Estimated vaccine effectiveness was pretty much zero

Day 8 to day 21

New cases declined


At day 21

Vaccine effectiveness, 91%

After day 21

Remained at 90%

Expected to last form 9 weeks to 6 months

Conclusion

A single dose of vaccine is highly protective

The early results coming from Israel support the UK policy of extending the gap between doses

Also

Vaccine effectiveness seems to be better at reducing severe disease that at reducing mild disease

Therefore, more than 90% protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and deaths

Japan

https://news.trust.org/item/20210219031629-aeqnu/

Confirmed 91 VOC cases, E484K mutation

Infection cluster, Tokyo immigration facility

It may be more contagious than conventional strains,

and if it continues to spread domestically,

it could lead to a rapid rise in cases

Other VOCs, 151

UK data

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Cases, + 12,057 = 4,083,242

Deaths, + 454 = 119,387

Deaths, + 7,820 = 129,498

Vaccinations

First dose, 16,423,082

Second dose, 573,724

W/E 14 February, 2,908,155


US, CDC data

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

Past 7 days

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=sf_coronavirus

New daily reported cases, down 28.1%

New daily reported deaths, 26.4%

CoViD related hospitalizations, down 16.1

(62,300)

Test positivity rate, 5.1%

Vaccine doses since 14th December, 58,702,000

Two doses, 16,414,000 (5.02%)

https://covidtracking.com/data


Global vaccine tracker

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

UK vaccine tracker

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

US vaccine tracker

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Europe vaccine tracker

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/vaccines


UK vaccine donations

UK has ordered 400 million doses

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56117120

PM, G7, donate most of the UK's surplus vaccine supply to poorer countries

Numbers going will depend on boosters required

Urges 100-day vaccine target

Emmanuel Macron, 4 to 5%

James Cleverly

looking at a figure significantly greater than that

No short-term diplomatic leverage

global force for good

Unlike some countries

Partly using Covax

UK, £548m

US, $4bn