Encouraging Israeli vaccine data

Encouraging Israeli vaccine data

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Estimating the effectiveness of the Pfizer COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccine after a single dose. A reanalysis of a study of ‘real-world’ vaccination outcomes from Israel

Analysis completed 1st February


Norwich Medical School

We extract the primary data from Israel to,

estimate the incidence per day for each day after the first injection

N = 500,000

Retrospective cohort study

Infections over first 24 days = 3,077

Days 0 to 8

Case numbers increased (x 2)

Day 0 to day 14

Estimated vaccine effectiveness was pretty much zero

Day 8 to day 21

New cases declined

At day 21

Vaccine effectiveness, 91%

After day 21

Remained at 90%

Expected to last form 9 weeks to 6 months


A single dose of vaccine is highly protective

The early results coming from Israel support the UK policy of extending the gap between doses


Vaccine effectiveness seems to be better at reducing severe disease that at reducing mild disease

Therefore, more than 90% protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and deaths



Confirmed 91 VOC cases, E484K mutation

Infection cluster, Tokyo immigration facility

It may be more contagious than conventional strains,

and if it continues to spread domestically,

it could lead to a rapid rise in cases

Other VOCs, 151

UK data


Cases, + 12,057 = 4,083,242

Deaths, + 454 = 119,387

Deaths, + 7,820 = 129,498


First dose, 16,423,082

Second dose, 573,724

W/E 14 February, 2,908,155

US, CDC data


Past 7 days


New daily reported cases, down 28.1%

New daily reported deaths, 26.4%

CoViD related hospitalizations, down 16.1


Test positivity rate, 5.1%

Vaccine doses since 14th December, 58,702,000

Two doses, 16,414,000 (5.02%)


Global vaccine tracker


UK vaccine tracker


US vaccine tracker


Europe vaccine tracker


UK vaccine donations

UK has ordered 400 million doses


PM, G7, donate most of the UK's surplus vaccine supply to poorer countries

Numbers going will depend on boosters required

Urges 100-day vaccine target

Emmanuel Macron, 4 to 5%

James Cleverly

looking at a figure significantly greater than that

No short-term diplomatic leverage

global force for good

Unlike some countries

Partly using Covax

UK, £548m

US, $4bn