Encouraging Israeli vaccine data
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Estimating the effectiveness of the Pfizer COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccine after a single dose. A reanalysis of a study of ‘real-world’ vaccination outcomes from Israel
Analysis completed 1st February
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.01.21250957v1?fbclid=IwAR1mnoVZiabuYtzRCsJhwDGmiOeT2yKfbHLbF6b2kx7tWPwQiDEMEGViTtI
Norwich Medical School
We extract the primary data from Israel to,
estimate the incidence per day for each day after the first injection
N = 500,000
Retrospective cohort study
Infections over first 24 days = 3,077
Days 0 to 8
Case numbers increased (x 2)
Day 0 to day 14
Estimated vaccine effectiveness was pretty much zero
Day 8 to day 21
New cases declined
At day 21
Vaccine effectiveness, 91%
After day 21
Remained at 90%
Expected to last form 9 weeks to 6 months
Conclusion
A single dose of vaccine is highly protective
The early results coming from Israel support the UK policy of extending the gap between doses
Also
Vaccine effectiveness seems to be better at reducing severe disease that at reducing mild disease
Therefore, more than 90% protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and deaths
Japan
https://news.trust.org/item/20210219031629-aeqnu/
Confirmed 91 VOC cases, E484K mutation
Infection cluster, Tokyo immigration facility
It may be more contagious than conventional strains,
and if it continues to spread domestically,
it could lead to a rapid rise in cases
Other VOCs, 151
UK data
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
Cases, + 12,057 = 4,083,242
Deaths, + 454 = 119,387
Deaths, + 7,820 = 129,498
Vaccinations
First dose, 16,423,082
Second dose, 573,724
W/E 14 February, 2,908,155
US, CDC data
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
Past 7 days
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=sf_coronavirus
New daily reported cases, down 28.1%
New daily reported deaths, 26.4%
CoViD related hospitalizations, down 16.1
(62,300)
Test positivity rate, 5.1%
Vaccine doses since 14th December, 58,702,000
Two doses, 16,414,000 (5.02%)
https://covidtracking.com/data
Global vaccine tracker
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
UK vaccine tracker
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
US vaccine tracker
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
Europe vaccine tracker
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/vaccines
UK vaccine donations
UK has ordered 400 million doses
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56117120
PM, G7, donate most of the UK's surplus vaccine supply to poorer countries
Numbers going will depend on boosters required
Urges 100-day vaccine target
Emmanuel Macron, 4 to 5%
James Cleverly
looking at a figure significantly greater than that
No short-term diplomatic leverage
global force for good
Unlike some countries
Partly using Covax
UK, £548m
US, $4bn
Analysis completed 1st February
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.01.21250957v1?fbclid=IwAR1mnoVZiabuYtzRCsJhwDGmiOeT2yKfbHLbF6b2kx7tWPwQiDEMEGViTtI
Norwich Medical School
We extract the primary data from Israel to,
estimate the incidence per day for each day after the first injection
N = 500,000
Retrospective cohort study
Infections over first 24 days = 3,077
Days 0 to 8
Case numbers increased (x 2)
Day 0 to day 14
Estimated vaccine effectiveness was pretty much zero
Day 8 to day 21
New cases declined
At day 21
Vaccine effectiveness, 91%
After day 21
Remained at 90%
Expected to last form 9 weeks to 6 months
Conclusion
A single dose of vaccine is highly protective
The early results coming from Israel support the UK policy of extending the gap between doses
Also
Vaccine effectiveness seems to be better at reducing severe disease that at reducing mild disease
Therefore, more than 90% protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and deaths
Japan
https://news.trust.org/item/20210219031629-aeqnu/
Confirmed 91 VOC cases, E484K mutation
Infection cluster, Tokyo immigration facility
It may be more contagious than conventional strains,
and if it continues to spread domestically,
it could lead to a rapid rise in cases
Other VOCs, 151
UK data
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
Cases, + 12,057 = 4,083,242
Deaths, + 454 = 119,387
Deaths, + 7,820 = 129,498
Vaccinations
First dose, 16,423,082
Second dose, 573,724
W/E 14 February, 2,908,155
US, CDC data
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
Past 7 days
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=sf_coronavirus
New daily reported cases, down 28.1%
New daily reported deaths, 26.4%
CoViD related hospitalizations, down 16.1
(62,300)
Test positivity rate, 5.1%
Vaccine doses since 14th December, 58,702,000
Two doses, 16,414,000 (5.02%)
https://covidtracking.com/data
Global vaccine tracker
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
UK vaccine tracker
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
US vaccine tracker
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
Europe vaccine tracker
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/vaccines
UK vaccine donations
UK has ordered 400 million doses
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56117120
PM, G7, donate most of the UK's surplus vaccine supply to poorer countries
Numbers going will depend on boosters required
Urges 100-day vaccine target
Emmanuel Macron, 4 to 5%
James Cleverly
looking at a figure significantly greater than that
No short-term diplomatic leverage
global force for good
Unlike some countries
Partly using Covax
UK, £548m
US, $4bn
