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Episode 46 – China Trade War Opportunities
Steve Sjuggerud joins Buck this week to break down the mixed messages you’ve been seeing on China’s economy, proposed US trade tariffs, and why “Trump’s China” is based on an outdated perception and vastly different from reality in Beijing. Steve tells you the one thing that matters most when it comes to investing in China’s markets, and why the trade war volatility is presenting a unique investment opportunity. Steve tells you the easiest way for foreign investors to get exposure to local Chinese stock markets.
Author and Daily Beast columnist Gordon Chang joins the conversation to tell you why a China trade war has been coming for quite some time. Buck asks Gordon if China is in a better trade negotiation position than the US, and whether or not President Xi Jinping’s communist leadership will fall in line with US requests on intellectual property. Will a crisis of confidence in China put a damper on its hyper growth policies?
A listener writes in with a timely question about China’s aspiration to become a more relevant player in global currency markets. Does it make a difference to the US, Europe, and Japan if China pushes the yuan as a reserve currency?
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0:48 Buck introduces this week’s first guest – True Wealth editor Steve Sjuggerud – here to help investors know what to make of China’s newest President for Life, and why a trade war could actually be a very good thing for investors.
02:30 Steve makes a prediction on who will be the biggest American losers from Trump’s trade war. Buck talks about America’s biggest victory in the international brinksmanship so far – and how a trade war will play out in the battle for Congress this fall.
16:25 China represents an opportunity Steve never thought he’d see in his 25-year career for a simple reason: hundreds of billions of dollars are about to flow there whether it’s a good investment or not. And right now, “you have a chance to get in before the crowd.”
21:30 Buck asks Steve for a timeline on his investment thesis for China. Steve shares a big stat for why investors won’t want to delay: Three times in the last 12 years, Chinese stocks have more than doubled over just 18 months. “I just want to have my chips in place for that.”
25:07 Steve shares the fund, including ticker symbol, that will serve as a “catch all” play for a Chinese market boom. “Instead of trying to bet on an individual stock here or there, I recommend this fund that’s benchmarked to the Chinese inclusion index.”
25:56 Buck introduces this week’s second guest, author and international politics expert Gordon Chang, whose 20 years living in China led to his insights being printed in publications like Barron’s and The Wall Street Journal.
31:48 Buck asks Gordon what a total backdown from the Chinese in a trade war would look like. Gordon explains why it makes perfect economic sense for the Chinese to fold in the face of U.S. economic strength – and why that probably won’t happen.
35:45 You can only lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty once – so does China have any other tricks up their sleeve to keep up the strong GDP growth they keep managing? Gordon reveals one policy silver bullet they could try – but it’s a complete U-turn from their current M.O.
38:30 Steve weighs in on how Gordon’s prediction of a Chinese crisis fits in with his own bullishness on their markets… and finds that they’re totally compatible.
46:19 Steve asks the No. 1 question for US investors – how do we get out of the rising tide of entitlement and debt expansion here in America? Buck explains why that’s not happening anytime soon, for the same reason you don’t hear about the Tea Party anymore.
57:55 Buck reaches into the mailbag to pull out a question from a reader who asks if China will gain currency traction by having some commodities begin trading in the yuan rather than the dollar.